题目：人民币汇率变动对我国对外贸易的影响研究
英文文献资料：
First, the core of foreign exchange reform, performance and trend analysis
(A) of the RMB exchange reform in 2005 the core in the following aspects: First, the exchange rate formation mechanism reform. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB started to practice market-based, with reference to a basket of currencies, there is managed floating exchange rate system. Second, the appropriate release of the RMB appreciation. namely, the appreciation of the yuan currency to make small adjustments to the yuan against the U.S. dollar by 2.1%. The third is due to expand the floating range of RMB exchange rate. to allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate volatility for the day plus or minus 0.3%; and non-dollar currencies to the yuan exchange rate floating range extended to 3%; to expand the banks in the pricing of rights, cash and cash sale price of the benchmark rate down 1% -4% or less by the banks to decide, but also multi-day price.
(B) after performance of the RMB exchange reform: exchange rate flexibility has become pronounced and the trade surplus continued to expand. RMB exchange reform in 14 months, the yuan-dollar exchange rate movements, and basic show \"rose slipped\" the characteristics of the slow movement of its own run: (1) slow its own run. from the exchange rate reform to September 21, 2006 in 291 trading days, only 2 days less than 8.11, the lowest for the July 27, 2005 of 8.1128, compared with 0.03% 8.11 depreciation, the maximum for the September 14, 2006 of 7.9461, compared with 8.11 l 2.06%, total volatility is 2%. (2) highlighted the exchange rate flexibility to achieve a two-way floating. such as: the dollar, compared with the previous trading day, the yuan in 291 Japan has 191 trading days trading float, 100 trading days to float downward. (3) trade surplus continued to expand. In 2005 China's trade surplus up to 101.9 billion U.S. dollars, of which the trade surplus reached 62.3 billion U.S. dollars in the second half than before the exchange reform trade surplus of 39.6 billion U.S. dollars for half a year more than 22.6 billion U.S. dollars.
(C) of the RMB exchange rate changes of the future trend analysis. Either the short or medium to long term appreciation of the RMB exchange rate remains largely expected: One. Growing balance of payments surplus is the result of the RMB exchange rate, the expected short-term appreciation of the main factors. According to the relevant state data, in 2005 China's trade surplus up to 101.9 billion U.S. dollars, capital account surplus has reached 63 billion U.S. dollars; 1, 2006 -8 months were still a trade surplus totaled 95.65 billion U.S. dollars and the introduction of FDI371.92 billion U.S. dollars, up 75% over the same period the previous year and 5.8%. estimated annual trade surplus in 2006 will more than 140 billion U.S. dollars, to the end of 2006 foreign exchange reserves will be nearly 1 trillion dollars. the huge balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves double to form a strong appreciation of the yuan is expected to: Asian Development Bank forecast 5.8% during the year about the yuan to appreciate; leading global investment bank Lehman Brothers forecast U.S. dollar against the yuan by the end of will reach 7.8.
2. Nominal exchange rates are still lower than the actual balance. In recent years, vast majority of experts and scholars both at home and abroad that the yuan nominal exchange
rates have a greater degree of underestimation. Such as: Zhang Zhibo (2005) research results show that, according to the relative purchasing power parity theory Meeting the real equilibrium exchange rate of RMB to change before 6.97, if the official exchange rate in 1997 as the base rate estimate was 7.3; Lu Zhiyong et al (2005) that the RMB exchange reform before the actual 15% -20% undervalued; U.S. officials and Most scholars generally believe that the yuan is undervalued real -25%, 15%. to September 21, 2006, compared with the prior foreign exchange reform, the RMB appreciation of the actual accumulated only 4.16%.
3. Offshore RMB NDF prices show the expected appreciation of the RMB. Foreign exchange reform since the offshore NDF market, one-year dollar / yuan NDF discount is basically over in 3000, despite the premium from the July 22 high of around 4,000 points contraction for the 31 October of 2920 points, but thereafter but there is growing, to September 19, 2006 up to 3500 points. As the offshore RMB NDF and domestic foreign exchange market and domestic and foreign interest rate transmission mechanism is not effective, the RMB NDF offset interest rate parity does not meet the RMB NDF market prices reflect the market's equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB to judge.
4. In the long run, sound economic growth momentum strong support for the RMB exchange rate expectations. Our 1979-2004 annual average economic growth rate up to 9.6%, much higher than the same period in the U.S. and world growth. Asian Development Bank expects China 2006 and 2007 the economy will grow by 10% and 9.5%. Taking all factors, it is estimated in the future a longer period (eg 5-10 years) the Chinese economy is still possible to achieve average annual growth rate of around 7%, good economic growth support long-term strength of the RMB exchange rate expectations.
Second, China's foreign exchange reform on the influence of foreign trade enterprises (A) Based on the analysis of import and export elasticity theory. The traditional theory is that exchange rate flexibility, exchange rate changes on the impact of trade is conditional, it depends on the elasticity of demand for their export and import demand elasticities.
But many scholars believe that China's import and export elasticities and the absolute value is less than or close to 1, basically does not meet the Marshall - Lerner condition, such as: Zhang (2001) by regression analysis of 1985-1998 data obtained China's progress, the export elasticity was -0.0566 and -0.0057, import and export flexibility, and the absolute value is only 0.0623. in accordance with the conclusions inferred rise in the RMB's rise, China's import and export of devaluation on the trade balance does not have to improve the effect. In addition, some experts calculated the absolute value of the import and export elasticities and greater than 1 (Daizu Xiang, 1997; Pham, 2004, etc.). However, Marshall - Lerner condition is usually applied to trade a small country, while opening up economic power may not be applicable, such as: Pham (2004) on the view that Marshall - Lerner condition does not apply to China. According to Pham calculated long-term export elasticity of -0.8579 in China, the absolute value of less than 1, indicating the price appreciation of the renminbi to increase in the rate of exports over exports the rate of decrease, but increased exports, assuming a 10% revaluation would make Chinese exports increased 1.421%, the RMB appreciation will lead to further increase China's trade surplus.
(B) Based on the characteristics of processing trade, significant type structure of import and export trade.
1. China's foreign trade structure: type characteristics of processing trade. Processing
trade exports in recent years, the proportion of total merchandise exports in China has close to 55%, while processing trade with imported foreign equipment, and general trade in raw materials and capital goods imports account for China 60% of total imports, processing trade and foreign investment enterprises in China made great contribution to the goods trade surplus.
2. Remarkable features of the processing trade type import and export in China have a close relationship. Renyong Ju (2003) on the relationship between China's import and export inspection, their research shows that the flexibility of China's imports to exports was 0.818, which imports nearly 82% After re-exported after processing, that appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to imports, thus help re-exported. Xu Hui (2005), according to the Chinese quarter of the year 1994-2003 statistics on our progress, cointegration relationship between exports and Granger causality analyzed, considered: imports because exports of Granger, 而且 from the long run, China's imports Chukou significant impact (positive correlation), import almost finished explaining export. see, RMB appreciation Suiran which commodity export of foreign currency price rise, but in the processing trade are \"two out\imported, the import prices and the appreciation of the renminbi will decrease business costs, can be offset by appreciation of the RMB to export most of the negative effects. After the exchange reform, Foreign direct investment inflows increased rather than decreased trend from January to April 2006, actual foreign direct investment in China amounted to 18.5 billion U.S. dollars, compared with an increase of 5.8% over the same period in 2005. see, the RMB appreciation on China's processing trade, production, export and little effect on the trade balance.
(C) the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate for further analysis: Based on the empirical research literature. In recent years, many Chinese scholars to study by empirical trade balance and exchange rate fluctuations related degree, such as: Xie Zhiyong (1999) by 1996-1997 data analysis, that our country into, correlation coefficient of the export exchange rate is only 0.29 and 0.35, respectively; Xie Jianguo (2002) had on the 1978-2000 data analysis, that the exchange rate changes can explain trading income Support 3%; China PR et al (2004) used 1978-2002 data on China's balance of payments and trade relationship between the RMB exchange rate has been studied, that the judge not only the coefficient between the two low (only 0.216), and Cointegration and Granger causality analysis revealed that there is no balance between the yuan rise (depreciate) the value of China's trade balance of payments impact is very limited. above all evidence shows that our trade balance and exchange rates are not high correlation .
Third, the RMB appreciation on the positive impact of China's import and export trade (A) help improve trade conditions and adjust the industrial structure. RMB Exchange Rate would force the export of labor-intensive and technology-intensive industry, enterprise development, increasing value-added export products. Meanwhile, the yuan appreciation would reduce the cost of imports of advanced equipment, help to promote export structure and industrial structure upgrade.
(B) reduce the trade surplus, and the major trading countries to improve trade relations. RMB appreciation could increase China's total imports properly, help reduce the trade surplus, to ease relations with major trading partners and the promotion of the harmonious development of economy and trade.
(C) is conducive to China for raw materials, energy products imports. In the international high energy and raw material prices, RMB appreciation will help to improve the international purchasing power, not only conducive to absorption of foreign resources and domestic resources will ease the bottleneck, reduce our imports of energy, raw material burden. Fourth, changes in the RMB exchange rate system, the negative impact on the import and export trade
(A) appreciation of the yuan too quickly lead to decline in export competitiveness. If the rapid appreciation of the RMB, labor-intensive enterprises to maintain a profit, export prices will increase, which will weaken its international competitiveness.
(B) the impact of the economic benefits of import and export enterprises, increase foreign exchange risk. From the new exchange system is running a 14-month performance, its flexibility is gradually revealed to the market at any time in China's foreign trade exchange rate movements over the thunder of the wave, the international Trade costs, thus hedging the foreign exchange market efficiency features and hedge higher demands.
(C) appreciation of the RMB, increasing pressure outside. As the RMB appreciation on China to improve trade balance effect is not so rigid with my balance of payments surplus, in this sense, appreciation of the RMB will continue to form the external pressure that external pressure surplus → → → Re revaluation surplus → pressure → External further appreciation of the yuan again ... ... So in the long term, if the yield to external pressure may lead to a vicious climbed, the yuan. RMB revaluation should be taken to a small extent, chronic, long-term of appreciation of the principles, avoid large, rapid-style appreciation.
中文翻译：
一､人民币汇改的核心内容及其表现和趋势分析
(一)2005年人民币汇改的核心内容主要体现在以下方面:一是改革汇率生成机制｡自2005年7月21日起,人民币开始实行以市场供求为基础､参考一篮子货币进行调节､有管理的浮动汇率制度｡二是适当释放人民币升值的压力｡即对人民币币值作小幅的升值调整,人民币对美元升值2.1%｡三是适当扩大人民币汇率的浮动区间｡允许人民币兑美元汇率日波幅为上下浮动0.3%;将人民币与非美元货币汇率的浮动区间扩大到3%;扩大银行自行定价的权限,现汇和现钞买卖价在基准汇率上下1%-4%以内由银行自行决定,而且可以一日多价｡
(二)人民币汇改后的表现:汇率弹性开始凸现和贸易顺差继续扩大｡人民币汇改14个月以来人民币对美元汇率的基本走势,基本呈现“大涨小跌”的缓慢盘升走势的特点:(1)缓慢盘升｡从汇率改革至2006年9月21日的291个交易日中,只有2个交易日低于8.11,最低为2005年7月27日的8.1128,比8.11贬值0.03%,最高为2006年9月14日的7.9461,比8.11升2.06%,累计波幅为2%｡(2)汇率弹性凸现,实现了双向浮动｡如:对美元,与上一个交易日对比,人民币在291个交易日中有191个交易日上浮,100个交易日下浮｡(3)贸易顺差继续扩大｡2005年我国贸易顺差高达1019亿美元,其中下半年贸易顺差达623亿美元,比汇改前的上半年贸易顺差的396亿美元还多226亿美元｡
(三)人民币汇率变化的未来走势分析｡不管是从短期还是从中长期来看,人民币汇率仍然主要是升值的预期:
1.不断扩大的国际收支顺差是导致人民币汇率中､短期升值预期的主要因素｡据国家有关资料显示,2005年我国贸易顺差高达1019亿美元,资本项目顺差也达630亿美元;2006年1-8月仍分别实现贸易顺差累计达956.50亿美元和引进FDI371.92亿美元,分别比上年同期增长75%和5.8%｡估计2006年全年贸易顺差仍将超过1400亿美元,到2006年底外汇储备将接近
1万亿美元｡巨额的国际收支双顺差和外汇储备,形成人民币较强的升值预期:亚行预测年内人民币将升值5.8%左右;著名全球投行雷曼兄弟预测年底美元兑人民币将达到7.8｡
2.名义汇率仍低于实际均衡汇率｡近年来,国内外绝大多数专家和学者均认为人民币名义汇率存在较大程度的低估｡如:张志柏(2005)的研究成果显示,根据相对购买力平价理论,汇改前人民币实际均衡汇率为6.97,若以1997年官方汇率为基期汇率估算则为7.3;鲁志勇等(2005)认为,汇改前人民币实际被低估15%-20%;美国官方和绝大多数学者普遍认为人民币实际被低估15%-25%｡到2006年9月21日,同人民币汇改前相比,人民币累计实际只升值4.16%｡
3.境外人民币NDF价格显示人民币升值的预期｡人民币汇改以来,境外NDF市场1年期美元/人民币NDF贴水基本上在3000点以上,尽管贴水由7月22日最高时的4000点左右收缩为10月31日的2920点,但尔后却又出现扩大的趋势,到2006年9月19日达3500点｡由于境外人民币NDF与国内外汇市场和国内外利率没有有效的传导机制,人民币NDF不符合抵补利率平价,人民币NDF市场价格反映了市场对人民币均衡实际汇率的判断｡
4.从长期来看,良好的经济增长态势支撑人民币汇率走强的预期｡我国1979-2004年年均经济增速高达9.6%,大大高于美国和世界同期的增长速度｡亚洲开发银行预计,中国经济2006和2007年将分别增长10%和9.5%左右｡综合各方面因素,估计今后较长时期(如5-10年)中国经济仍然有可能实现年均7%左右的增长速度,良好的经济增长态势支撑人民币汇率长期走强的预期｡
二､人民币汇改对我国外贸进出口企业影响的分析
(一)基于进出口弹性理论的分析｡传统的汇率弹性理论认为,汇率的变动对贸易的影响是有条件的,它取决于本国产品的出口需求弹性和进口需求弹性｡
但是不少学者认为我国的进出口弹性之和的绝对值小于或接近1,基本不符合马歇尔-勒纳条件,如:张明(2001)通过对1985-1998年数据的回归分析,得出我国进､出口弹性分别为-0.0566和-0.0057,进出口弹性之和的绝对值仅为0.0623｡按照上升结论推断,人民币的升､贬值对我国进出口贸易收支不具备改善效应｡另外一些专家计算出的进出口弹性之和的绝对值大于1(戴祖祥,1997;范金,2004等)｡但是,马歇尔-勒纳条件通常对贸易小国适用,而对开放经济大国却未必适用,如:范金(2004)就认为马歇尔-勒纳条件不适用于中国｡根据范金计算的我国中长期出口弹性为-0.8579,绝对值小于1,说明人民币升值使出口价格的提高的幅度超过出口数量减少的幅度,出口额反而提高了,假设人民币升值10%,将会使我国的出口额增加1.421%,所以人民币升值会促使我国贸易顺差的进一步增加｡
(二)基于我国加工贸易型特征显著的进出口贸易结构分析｡
1.我国进出口贸易结构:加工贸易型特征｡加工贸易出口近年来占我国商品出口的比重已接近55%,加工贸易进口加上外商设备进口和一般贸易中的原料及资本品进口已占我国总进口的60%左右,加工贸易和外商投资企业对我国商品贸易顺差作出了巨大贡献｡
2.显著的加工贸易型特征导致我国密切的进出口关系｡任永菊(2003)通过对我国进口和出口的关系检验,其研究成果显示,我国进口对出口的弹性为0.818,即近82%的进口经过加工后复出口,即人民币升值有利于进口,进而有利于复出口｡徐晖(2005)根据中国1994—2003年度的季度统计数据,对我国进､出口之间的协整关系和Granger因果关系进行了分析,认为:进口是出口的Granger原因,而且从长期来看,我国进口对出口具有显著的影响(正相关性),进口几乎可以完成解释出口｡可见,人民币升值虽然使商品出口的外币价上升,但是在加工贸易中是“两头在外”,大部分原材料来自进口,人民币升值会使进口价格和企业成本下降,可抵消绝大部分因人民币升值给出口的消极影响｡汇改后,外商直接投资流入出现不减反增的趋势,2006年1-4月我国外商直接实际投资额为185亿美元,比2005年同期增加5.8%｡可见,人民币升值对我国加工贸易的生产､出口和贸易收支的影响很小｡
(三)贸易收支与汇率间关系的进一步分析:基于实证文献的研究｡近年来,不少学者通过
实证来研究我国贸易收支与汇率变动的相关度,如:谢智勇(1999)通过对1996-1997年的相关数据进行分析,得出我国进､出口的汇率相关系数仅分别为0.29和0.35;谢建国(2002)过对1978—2000的数据进行分析,认为汇率变动仅能解释贸易收支的3%;任兆璋等(2004)用1978-2002年的相关数据对我国贸易收支差额与人民币汇率之间的关系进行了研究,认为二者之间不仅判断系数低(仅0.216),而且协整检验和Granger因果关系分析均显示不存在均衡关系,人民币升(贬)值对中国的贸易收支差额影响是十分有限的｡以上实证均说明我国贸易收支与汇率变动的相关性不高｡
三､人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的积极影响
(一)有利于改善贸易条件和调整产业结构｡人民币适度升值会迫使劳动密集型出口企业发展技术密集型产业,增加出口产品附加值｡同时,人民币升值会降低先进设备的进口成本,有利于促进出口商品结构和产业结构的升级换代｡
(二)减少贸易顺差,改善和各主要贸易国的贸易关系｡人民币适当升值可增加我国进口总额,有利于减少贸易顺差､缓和与主要贸易伙伴的关系,促进我国经济和贸易的和谐发展｡
(三)有利于我国对原料､能源产品的进口｡在国际能源和原料价格居高不下的情况下,人民币升值有助于提高国际购买力,不仅有利于吸收海外资源,而且会缓解国内资源瓶颈,减轻我国进口能源､原料的负担｡
四､人民币汇率制度变化对进出口贸易的消极影响
(一)人民币过快升值导致出口竞争力下降｡如果人民币升值过快,劳动密集型企业为维持一定利润,出口产品价格将有所提高,这将削弱其国际竞争力｡
(二)影响了进出口企业的经济收益,增加外汇风险｡从新汇制运行14个月表现来看,其弹性正逐步显现,使我国外贸市场随时处于汇率变动的风头浪尖之上,使国际贸易成本增加,从而对外汇市场的避险功能和避险效率提出更高要求｡
(三)人民币升值的外部压力不断加大｡由于人民币升值对我国贸易收支的改善效应不大,从而我国国际收支顺差具备刚性,从这个意义上讲,会不断形成人民币升值的外部压力,即顺差→外部压力→人民币升值→再顺差→外部再压力→人民币再升值„„因此从长期来看,如果屈服外部压力可能会造成人民币的恶性盘升｡人民币升值应采取小幅度､慢性化､长期性升值的原则,切忌大幅度､快速式升值｡
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